Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Whatever you do, do not look down

The days of bullying the worst teams in the league are over. The bottom-dwellers are back, and revenge is what they crave.

Each of the four lowest-ranked teams coming into Week 7 won this week, shaking up the standings and calling into question the very notion of the term "crappy team." Even Hahne, loser of four straight, came back and showed that he's not ready to just donate his $20 to the league pot.

We have passed the halfway point of the season, folks, and with seven of 13 games played, just three games separate first from last in the standings. And when last place has scored the second-most points in the league, it's time for those on top to fear what's below.

Even Trees and Steeles, who sit atop the league with five wins each, aren't running away with the league at this point. In fact, no team has a winning or losing streak of more than two games right now, which tells me that there's a lot of football left to be played (while we watch and count the yards and touchdowns amassed by the real athletes, of course).

Let's take a look at playoff chances for a second. If every remaining game was decided by flipping a coin (and, let's be honest, it does feel that way some times), Practice would have the lowest chance of getting in, 19 percent. All nine remaining teams would have at least a 47 percent chance of getting in. That means nobody is out of it at this point. And if Practice beats Explosion this week, Practice's chance of getting into the playoffs automatically jumps to 30 percent.

Let's dive into the matchups, shall we? We'll start with the game that didn't have the highest scores but did have the most exciting finish.

When 109, Ants 96


Tony Romo's left clavicle. That one bone may have been the difference between winning and losing for Ants. If Romo stays in there, maybe Ants gets a few more touchdown passes. And if that happens, maybe it keeps Eli Manning off the field longer and reduces When's score.

But as they say, "Maybe ain't good enough in horseshoes."

All things considered, this was an entertaining game, especially because the two teams had a total of five active players in the Monday night game. One game will decide it all, Harry Potter.

When got great production from E. Manning (23) and Joe Flacco (20), and Ants saw 22 points from newly acquired Steve Johnson (who?).

Things are looking good for the 4-3 Team When, who has won two straight and is now in fourth place. But he has seven players on bye this week, including two quarterbacks, and he plays the second-place Steeles. In other words, things aren't looking good for Team When.

Things aren't looking too promising for Ants, either. He plays the first-place Trees next, his top quarterback (Romo) is out for six to eight weeks, and his QB2 (Cutler) is on bye. Good luck!

Trees 159, Fartsicle 79


Trees: "Looks like I'm playing you this week, little bro."
Fartsicle: "Because you're such a great big bro I'm going to start two players who are inactive and one who is on bye week. Are you proud of me?"
Trees: "What? Oh, sorry, I didn't catch that. I was too busy counting how many players will score in double digits for me this week. I keep losing count."


I assume the pre-Week 7 conversation between real-life brothers Trees and Fartsicle went something like that.

Yes, Fartsicle started three players who were projected to get 0 points (one because he was on bye). And yes, it wouldn't have mattered anyway because Trees was the week's leading scorer.

Does Trees have an easy schedule? Yes, the easiest. Has Trees let that embarrassingly easy schedule affect his own performance? Nope. He has scored the highest points per game (121). It's hard to lose when you've got those kind of numbers.

But it's always fun to dream about having a schedule that lets you play the lowest-scoring team four of the seven weeks of the season so far. What would your record be with Trees' schedule? Let's find out, going from the bottom of the standings up. The numbers are Wins-Losses-Ties, of course. The team's actual record is in parentheses.

Practice: 5-1-1 (2-5)
Republic: 4-2-1 (3-4)
Ants: 5-2-0 (3-4)
Fartsicle: 3-3-1 (3-4)
Hahne: 4-2-1 (3-4)
Explosion: 4-2-1 (3-4)
When: 4-2-1 (4-3)
Screech: 5-1-1 (4-3)
Steeles: 6-1-0 (5-2)

Again, Trees has no control over his opponents' points (unless that opponent is his brother! I kid, I kid). But it's always fun to dream!

Let me get back to Fartsicle's 79 points for a second. It's time for an Official Bryan Rant. Sure, it's understandable to forget to look at your roster once in the course of a week. Internet access is tough to find these days. I get that.

But let's remember two things. First, every result affects more than just the two teams in the matchup. With standings being as close as they are, every game matters. In other words, I was people were counting on you to beat Trees this week!

Second, because the first tiebreaker for playoff seeding is total points scored, you want to grab every point you can from every week, even the losses. Take a look at this shocking stat: Farsicle and Hahne each are 3-4. Fartsicle trails Hahne by just four points in the standings.

If the playoffs started today, Hahne would be in as the sixth seed, and Fartsicle would be out. Thanks for playing, send us your $20, Fartsicle.

Four measly points. Fartsicle's backup TE Hernandez scored five points. The TE he started, Keller, was on bye. If Fartsicle had made that one roster switch, he would be in playoff position.

Again, I'm ranting, and it might not even matter. But that's a stirring reminder to all of us that every point counts!

Republic 132, Screech 111


In the Week 5 recap, I wrote, "Republic is in last place, but there's some definite promise on his bench that says he could turn things around."

I hate it when I'm right. He definitely has turned it around, winning two in a row now and with signs of more to come. In fact, there's even more promise on his bench in the form of Kenny Britt, who I drafted  in the 17th round and later dropped. Oops!

Britt scored 44 points and was on Republic's bench (Oops!), meaning this 21-point win could've easily been much worse.

Now, Republic is still out of the playoffs if the season ended today, and his team has scored a league-low 98 points per game. But good things could be in Republic's future.

As for Screech, things weren't terrible for me, seeing as I did score in the top half of all teams this week. But too many 3- and 4-point days from key players just won't get it done. But because what I say on the blog apparently comes true, let me say this: Screech will score 150+ points in Week 8 and will beat Fartsicle!

Practice 151, Steeles 107


Once again, Steeles doesn't get production from Chris Johnson and Matt Forte, and Steeles loses. In the Steeles' two losses this season, the running back tandem has combined for 6 and 11 points. That meant that even Darren McFadden's eye-popping 46 points were wasted thanks to unproductive days by Johnson and Forte.

If those two had gotten their average weekly point total (16 and 14), that would've added 19 more points to Steeles' score, and he would've... still lost. OK, so maybe that trend is more of a coincidence than an actual trend.

Yes, Practice had a banner day. After an 84-point showing in Week 6, he nearly doubled that and is again in the win column. The league's last-place team has scored the second-most points in the league and still has nothing to show for it... so far.

Though Practice surely hopes this 151-point total is the sign of good things to come, he can't like the news out of the Brett Favre camp about the elderly quarterback's left ankle. Even if Favre can play, is he worth starting anymore? He's averaging 7.5 fantasy points per game, he's only scored in double digits once this season, and he's like 100 years old. Twenty-seven other quarterbacks are better fantasy QBs than Favre. Eek.

Hahne 130, Explosion 100


Ladies and gentlemen, let's welcome back Team Hahne! Hahne's 53-point meltdown in Week 3 apparently sent his team into a deep, monthlong hibernation. He lost four straight before bouncing back in a big way to put 130 on the scoreboard.

Yes, kids, you can lose four games in a row and still be in playoff contention. Thanks to Fartsicle, Hahne would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. I think the real key for Hahne this week was not starting any bye week players or players who were inactive for the game. But I'm no expert.

What I can tell you is that the Club Zero leader coming into Week 7 didn't have any 0-point or negative-point performances this week. Nice!

He did get great value out of Ryan Fitzpatrick (him?) and the Redskins D/ST (them?). Those two fantasy sleepers combined for 52 points. With four players, including Peyton Manning, on bye for Team Hahne, a win in Week 7 was no easy feat, so color me impressed.

As for Explosion, it's hard to argue with a 100-point day. He made many of the right moves, but they just didn't pay off. He benched Lee Evans against Baltimore. Smart move, but Evans got 29 points, perhaps out of spite.

He started the Saints defense, playing at home against Cleveland. Again, I would've done the same, but the D actually lost Explosion three points. Smart moves aren't always the right move, apparently.

Final thought

It might be cliche to say this, but you can't win them all, you win some, you lose some, and with teams rising from the depths of the ashes like a phoenix to break through the glass ceiling, there are no easy victories, only small actors.

Stats


Don't forget that An's stat page totally rocks.